Money Line Odds Nfl
For those of you who aren’t familiar with betting the money line in the NFL it’s simple. You are essentially wagering on who you think will win the game. There’s no point spread involved. There is just an increase in the juice based on the percentage chances of a team winning outright.
For example, the money line on a 3-point home favorite in the NFL would have odds like -164 to win the game outright. This means you would need to wager $164 to win $100 on that team. On the flip side, you could bet a 3-point underdog at +135 to win outright, meaning you would wager $100 to win $135.
What I’m interested in when looking at the weekly odds is whether certain moneyline bets are profitable. Each chart below shows two money lines. The first is the “expected moneyline”. We took the win percentages for all NFL games since 1980 at each line and converted them into a money line. The “actual moneyline” is what a typical sportsbook would set for each spread.
NFL moneyline odds typically range from -110, which would be considered a small favorite all the way up to -600, which would be considered a massive favorite. If moneyline betting is not for you then you can head over to our NFL odds page which shows all of our best value bets for the day against the spread. A moneyline requires bettors to pick the winner of the game, but the odds are adjusted according to each team’s ability. A -200 favorite is expected to win the game, so bettors need to risk $2 for every $1 they want to win. A +150 underdog gives bettors the chance to win $1.50 for every $1 risked. Get the latest NFL odds, spreads and betting lines from this week's games, as well as full coverage of the National Football League from USA TODAY. View Week 21 NFL Moneyline odds from the top sportsbooks in the US. Instantly locate the best sports betting lines and odds.
Why is this something you need to know? Home favorites of -3.5 win the game 63.61% of the time. If you look at the chart we’ve converted that to a money line of -175 (expected moneyline). The problem is a book would make you pay around -206 (actual moneyline) for a -3.5-point favorite. Thus, it’s obviously not a good bet.
The same goes for underdogs. Say you see a home underdog of +2 and decide you might as well take the money line. The actual line you would get would be something close to +105. The expected moneyline for 2-point home underdogs is +119. If the actual moneyline comes in lower than the expected moneyline then history says you are not getting value on your wager.
As you’ll see, it’s pretty rare to find instances where taking the money line is a valuable play. There are obviously significant differences between certain situations. So, I’ve broken the data into four groups: home favorites, road favorites, home underdogs and road underdogs.
*Please note that some higher lines did not have enough games to qualify as significant data. For those games we used estimated win percentages to better represent those numbers.
NFL Money Line Conversion Charts
Now for the road favorites…
Here are the road underdogs.
And finally….home underdogs.
Handicapping NFL games isn’t easy. But, hopefully this will give you another tool to use against the sportsbooks. If you consider converting the point spreads into expected moneylines on any given game you might find a couple more winners.
As with everything in gambling, the house almost always has the edge. This certainly doesn’t mean you have to avoid betting moneylines in the NFL, but check these charts to make sure you are maximizing the value of those wagers.
You’ll also notice that it’s better to do a two-team 6 point teaser on favorites of 6 or 7 points instead of doing a money line parlay. That’s just one of the reasons we love NFL teaser wagers so much.
Spreads Converted to Expected Win Percentage
The table below shows the expected wining percentage at each point spread for the favorite and underdog. This is the complete odds conversion table for the NFL.
| Point Spread | Favorite Win Chance | Underdog Win Chance |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 50.00% | 50.00% |
| 0.5 | 50.00% | 50.00% |
| 1 | 51.30% | 48.80% |
| 1.5 | 52.50% | 47.50% |
| 2 | 53.50% | 46.50% |
| 2.5 | 54.50% | 45.50% |
| 3 | 59.40% | 40.60% |
| 3.5 | 64.30% | 35.70% |
| 4 | 65.80% | 34.20% |
| 4.5 | 67.30% | 32.70% |
| 5 | 68.10% | 31.90% |
| 5.5 | 69.00% | 31.10% |
| 6 | 70.70% | 29.40% |
| 6.5 | 72.40% | 27.70% |
| 7 | 75.20% | 24.80% |
| 7.5 | 78.10% | 21.90% |
| 8 | 79.10% | 20.90% |
| 8.5 | 80.20% | 19.80% |
| 9 | 80.70% | 19.30% |
| 9.5 | 81.10% | 18.90% |
| 10 | 83.60% | 16.40% |
| 10.5 | 86.00% | 14.00% |
| 11 | 87.10% | 12.90% |
| 11.5 | 88.20% | 11.80% |
| 12 | 88.50% | 11.60% |
| 12.5 | 88.70% | 11.30% |
| 13 | 89.30% | 10.70% |
| 13.5 | 90.00% | 10.00% |
| 14 | 92.40% | 7.60% |
| 14.5 | 94.90% | 5.10% |
| 15 | 95.60% | 4.40% |
| 15.5 | 96.30% | 3.70% |
| 16 | 98.10% | 1.90% |
| 16.5 | 99.80% | 0.20% |
| 17 & Up | 100.00% | 0.00% |
More Spread & Money Line Conversion Charts
We’re just a few days away from Super Bowl 55, and if you’re the gambling sort, there will be plenty to throw some money down on.
Of course that includes the spread — if the Kansas City Chiefs will win by a certain margin or if the Tampa Bay Buccaneers can lose by less that margin or just win outright — the over/under (how many total points there will be) and the moneylines (a straight-up bet that results in a payout that depends on the number of the moneyline).
We looked at these way back on Jan. 25 — here’s an update with four days before the big game.
(All bets courtesy of BetMGM)
Spread: Chiefs -3.5
This line opened at Chiefs -3.5, moved down to Chiefs -3 and has apparently moved again. That probably tells me there was enough money coming in on Kansas City that it had to move a little.
Nfl Money Line Odds On Vegas Insider
I think I’d still bet on the Chiefs here to win by at least four, but that line could be exactly where bettors are split. And that’s the idea!
Over/Under: 56.5
Moneyline Odds Nfl
This is the same as it was a couple of weeks ago. This assumes a high-scoring affair, and that seems about right with Patrick Mahomes under center and a Bucs’ offense that could be trying to play catch-up.
Moneylines: Chiefs -165, Buccaneers +140
A slight amount of movement here — it opened at Chiefs -160 and Bucs +135.
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